Quick Access
Start here: these resources frame the question and survey the evidence landscape.
The workshop's core empirical puzzle: if the price of a high-quality plant-based hamburger fell by 10%, how much would factory-farmed chicken consumption decline? Existing estimates from scanner data, choice experiments, and field experiments conflict sharply — in some cases even on sign. The workshop will directly confront which methods, if any, yield credible answers.
How Much Do Plant-Based Products Substitute for Animal Products?
Synthesis The primary framing document for this workshop. Operationalizes the pivotal question around a specific counterfactual (Impossible Burger price falls by X%; how does chicken consumption respond?), surveys ~15 empirical papers across methods, and shows that no two scanner-data studies agree on the sign of the PBA–meat relationship for the same product categories. Identifies the core methodological challenge (price endogeneity), discusses three unresolved meta-questions (can elasticities be reliably estimated here; what experiment would help; what substitution rate justifies continued PBA R&D), and includes a forest plot of cross-price elasticity estimates across studies. Written with AI assistance; human-verified. Notes two author COIs (Woolley and Peacock are Unjournal team members).
Price-, Taste-, and Convenience-Competitive Plant-Based Meat Would Not Currently Replace Meat
Synthesis A synthesis essay arguing that even under optimistic product-improvement assumptions, consumer composition data suggests substitution effects would be modest. Draws on Neuhofer & Lusk buyer data and broader literature. Note: authored by a member of the Unjournal team (documented COI). Read as a synthesis position paper rather than original empirical analysis.
PBM Market Penetration and Taste Comparability: A First-Pass Evidence Review
Synthesis Reviews evidence on PBA market share trajectory, who buys PBAs (buyer composition), and how taste comparability has evolved, drawing on GFI market data, Neuhofer & Lusk (2022), OECD/FAO projections, and price trend data. Covers the omnivore-buyer versus displacement logic and the price/substitution evidence at a descriptive level. Annotatable via Hypothes.is. Treat as background orientation rather than a vetted literature review.
Why Are Fewer Grocery Shoppers Buying Meat? Declining Grocery Sales, Prices, and Cultural Change
Scanner Data Highest relevance in our scoping survey (73%). Uses Nielsen grocery scanner data with multiple identification approaches: a binary choice model with Hausman instruments, an AIDS model (with and without instruments, yielding puzzling results), event studies around first PBA purchase (which the authors' own pre-trend tests cast doubt on), and matrix completion. Core argument: PBAs cannot account for much of the recent decline in grocery meat sales. The authors are themselves somewhat pessimistic about the prospects for causal inference in this context. Note: Trevor Woolley (co-author) is a member of the Unjournal team; COI documented.
Assessing Cross-Price Effects of Meat Alternatives on Beef, Pork, and Chicken Retail Demand in 2022
Scanner Data Directly addresses the substitution question using a G-AIDS demand system. Main finding: PBM is a complement to chicken but a substitute for beef and pork — the opposite of what some other studies find for chicken. Cross-validated against Meat Demand Monitor choice experiment data (though the validation reasoning is contested). No explicit instrument for price endogeneity; the identification approach is less clearly articulated than in other papers.
Demand for Plant-Based Meat Alternatives and the Role of Habit Formation and Variety Seeking
Scanner Data Uses IRI scanner data. The published JAAE version refocused on structural habit-formation parameters rather than reduced-form cross-price elasticities (co-author Ortez was added). The earlier job market paper (linked) retained elasticity estimates. Both versions are potentially informative: the JMP for substitution estimates, the JAAE for understanding how long-run habit dynamics might amplify or dampen short-run price effects. Evaluators may focus on whichever version is more informative for the pivotal question.
Meet the Meatless: Demand for New Generation Plant-Based Meat Alternatives
Scanner Data Scanner data AIDS estimation. Finds PBM is a complement to beef and pork, but a substitute for chicken, turkey, and fish — directly conflicting with Tonsor & Bina (2023) on chicken and with other studies on beef. Identification strategy (a Durbin–Wu–Hausman test rather than a proper IV) is contested: the test diagnoses endogeneity but does not correct for it.
Price Elasticities of Meat, Fish and Plant-Based Meat Substitutes: Evidence from Dutch Supermarket Scanner Data
Scanner Data Dutch context using QAIDS. Finds PBMs are complements for beef, poultry, and fish, but substitutes for pork; changes in PBM price have no effect on meat demand. Useful as an international comparison point, though Dutch market structure and PBM penetration differ meaningfully from the US.
Are Plant-Based Analogues Replacing Cow's Milk in the American Diet?
Scanner Data Time-series / VAR analysis of plant-based milk substitution for dairy milk. Does not directly address PBM-for-meat, but the question is causally related: evidence of robust displacement in milk would support the hypothesis that the same mechanism operates in meat. Carefully done with robustness checks. Published in a decent journal.
Retail Price Randomization and Own-Price Elasticities [Bray et al., 2024]
Field Experiment Methodology Benchmark A key methodological reference for the workshop. A randomized retail pricing experiment found own-price elasticities substantially smaller than IV and difference-in-differences estimates from comparable observational data. This directly suggests commonly-used observational identification strategies overestimate demand responses — a result that casts doubt on whether any of the scanner-data cross-price estimates are credible. The mechanism (whether IV instruments violate the exclusion restriction, or whether the experiment has its own limitations) is unresolved and worth debating. Referenced in the EA Forum PQ post and the workshop About page; workshop participants are encouraged to locate the full citation.
Estimating the Effect of Moving Meat-Free Products to the Meat Aisle on Sales of Meat and Meat-Free Products
Field Experiment Non-randomised controlled intervention in a large UK supermarket chain: moving meat-free products to the meat aisle. Does not find a significant impact on meat sales overall. Does not address pricing directly, but the null result on placement is tangentially relevant: if physical proximity to meat has no impact on meat sales, this may suggest that PBA availability alone has limited short-run displacement power — though it could also be a null result specific to the placement-not-price channel.
Plant-Based versus Conventional Meat in Food Away From Home Settings: Substitution, Complementarity, and Market Impacts
Hypothetical Choice Basket-based DCE with EDM (exact demand model) extension, focused on food-away-from-home. Finds very small cross-price effects of PB burger prices on conventional meat, with mixed complementarity and substitution patterns. Potentially best-in-class for this method given author prestige and methodological rigor. Results conflict with observational scanner studies on the direction of effects for several categories.
Market Potential of New Plant-Based Protein Alternatives: Insights from Four US Consumer Experiments
Hypothetical Choice Four hypothetical DCE designs. The final and most realistic experiment finds Impossible and Beyond are complements to each other and to ground beef, but substitutes for chicken — the opposite of what Caputo et al. (2025) find for PBA–beef. Useful for examining how design choices within the DCE tradition affect conclusions, quite aside from scanner vs. hypothetical differences.
Substitution Patterns and Price Response for Plant-Based Meat Alternatives
Hypothetical Choice Restaurant/survey hypothetical DCE published in PNAS. Authors describe a careful methodological approach. Published in a high-profile general science venue. External validity limited by the hypothetical restaurant framing and the specific price range examined.
Supplementary Descriptive & Complementary Evidence (click to expand)
These papers do not support strong causal inference about substitution, but provide relevant context: buyer composition, repeat purchasing rates, advertising effects, and cross-product dynamics that inform how to think about the question.
Most Plant-Based Meat Alternative Buyers Also Buy Meat
Descriptive Descriptive IRI scanner analysis. Central finding: the large majority of PBM buyers are omnivores who also purchase conventional meat. Important context for interpreting who is affected by PBA price changes — if most buyers are flexitarians rather than dedicated vegans, lower PBA prices could displace more animal consumption than a "vegan niche" story would suggest. Does not estimate causal substitution effects.
Consumer Spending Patterns for Plant-Based Meat Alternatives
Descriptive Event study around the date of a household's first PBM purchase. Finds no decrease in meat spending in the purchase month; spending on deli, dairy, and dry groceries does decline. Low repeat purchase rate; for repeat buyers, PBM spending grows significantly. The event-study identification assumes random timing of first PBM purchase — implausible in practice — but the descriptive patterns (especially the low repeat rate) are informative.
Does the Advertising of Plant-Based Burgers Attract Meat Consumers?
Descriptive Advertising effectiveness: advertising increases PBM purchases primarily among existing vegan burger buyers; the effect is about 5x smaller for conventional meat buyers. Repeat purchasers make up roughly 30% of PBM purchasers. Relevant indirect evidence on market composition and the difficulty of reaching new consumer segments — though not a direct test of price-driven substitution.
Are All Meats Substitutes? A Basket- and Expenditure-Based Approach
Hypothetical Choice Hypothetical basket-based DCE focused on inter-meat substitution (beef/pork/chicken/turkey), without PBM as an option. Useful background for understanding the within-meat substitution landscape that PBAs are entering — since a meat tax or PBA price change could shift demand across animal products in ways that matter for welfare.
Full Research Scoping Table
Approximately 15 papers compiled with relevance ratings (by DR and JS), method classifications, and internal discussion notes on identification quality. Suggestions for additional relevant work are welcome.
Other Pivotal Questions Workshops
About this page
Reading list compiled with AI assistance from the Unjournal research scoping table and the EA Forum PQ post. Descriptions draw on relevance ratings and discussion notes by DR and JS. Annotations and corrections welcome via Hypothes.is; suggest additions via the workshop survey.